Peringatan Dini Kejadian Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) Berdasarkan Curah Hujan di Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan
Abstract
Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a disease caused by dengue virus through the bite of Aedes aegypti mosquito as the main vector. These mosquitoes have a very vulnerable lifestyle to climate change where one of them is rainfall. DHF control programs have been comprehensive so far but have not succeeded in reducing morbidity and mortality. The number of patients tends to increase and spread more broadly especially in the rainy season. The effects of rainfall are very important on the prevalence of DHF, therefore it is necessary as a tool to predict incidents and the risk of DHF events. South Kalimantan Provincial Health Office noted since 2010 to 2015 fluctuation occurred DHF incidence that even had an increase in death to 2-fold. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship and influence of rainfall on the occurrence of DHF, determine the early warning model of DHF incidence based on rainfall, and formulate recommendations for controlling the incidence of DHF in order to improve the degree of public health in South Kalimantan. Design used is the ecology time trend series with secondary data obtained retrospectively. The relationship between rainfall and dengue occurrence was measured by Spearman correlation whereas early warning model or prediction of DHF incidence based on rainfall was obtained by simple linear regression test. The test results showed there was a significant positive relationship and influence between rainfall and dengue occurrence. DHF incidence shows a linear increase in line with increased rainfall. Based on the model of linear equation (Y = -71,629 + 0,806X) states that the addition of every 1 mm of rainfall will increase the incidence of DHF by 0.81 cases / incidence. So with the result government is expected to be able to maximize the DBD control program ahead of the rainy season.
abstrak
Demam berdarah dengue (DBD) adalah penyakit yang disebabkan oleh virus dengue melalui gigitan nyamuk
Aedes aegypti sebagai vektor utama. Nyamuk ini memiliki pola hidup sangat rentan terhadap perubahan
iklim dimana salah satunya adalah curah hujan. Program pengendalian DBD selama ini telah berlangsung
komprehensif namun belum berhasil menurunkan angka kesakitan maupun kematian. Jumlah penderita
cenderung meningkat dan penyebarannya semakin luas terutama pada musim hujan. Efek dari curah hujan
sangat penting terhadap prevalensi DBD sehingga diperlukan sebagai alat untuk meramalkan insiden dan
risiko kejadian DBD. Dinas Kesehatan Provinsi Kalimantan Selatan mencatat sejak tahun 2010 hingga 2015
terjadi fluktuasi kejadian DBD yang bahkan sempat terjadi peningkatan kematian hingga 2 kali lipat. Tujuan
dari penelitian ini untuk menguji hubungan dan pengaruh curah hujan terhadap kejadian DBD, menentukan
model peringatan dini kejadian DBD berdasarkan curah hujan, serta merumuskan rekomendasi pengendalian
kejadian DBD dalam meningkatkan derajat kesehatan masyarakat di Kalimantan Selatan.Desain yang
digunakan adalah ekologi time trend series dengan data sekunder yang diperoleh secara retrospektif.
Hubungan antara curah hujan dan kejadian DBD diukur dengan korelasi Spearman sedangkan model
peringatan dini kejadian DBD berdasarkan curah hujan dihasilkan dengan uji regresi linier sederhana. Hasil
uji menunjukan terdapat hubungan dan pengaruh yang nyata positif antara curah hujan denga kejadian DBD.
Kejadian DBD menunjukkan peningkatan yang linier seiring dengan peningkatan curah hujan. Berdasarkan
model persamaan linier (Y= -71,629 + 0,806X) menyatakan bahwa penambahan setiap 1 mm curah hujan
akan meningkatkan kejadian DBD sebesar 0,81 kasus/kejadian. Sehingga dengan hal tersebut pemerintah
diharapkan dapat lebih memaksimalkan program pengendalian DBD menjelang musim hujan.
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