Pengaruh Harga Komoditas Perkebunan dan Pertambangan pada Perekonomian Kabupaten Tabalong: Pendekatan Model Keseimbangan Umum
Abstract
Tabalong Regency, as one of the supporting districts for the economy in South Kalimantan, has a large proportion of the Plantation and Mining sectors for their GDP. This study examines the impact of falling commodity prices in the Plantation sector and rising commodity prices in the Mining sector outside the Tabalong region on macro variables and sectoral output. The result shows that the impact of the decline in commodity prices in the Plantation sector, accompanied by an increase in commodity prices in the Mining sector in general, can elevate the regency's economy. The impact of the shock on the Mining sector is more dominant than the Plantation sector. The diversity of shock impacts on sectors in Tabalong Regency should be followed up by identifying leading and potential sectors in the framework of planning and policymaking so that the economy can continue to grow even when exposed to unexpected shocks.
Fluktuasi harga komoditas khususnya bagi daerah yang mengandalkan ekspor untuk menopang perekonomian menjadi penting untuk dicermati. Kabupaten Tabalong sebagai salah satu kabupaten penyokong perekonomian di Kalimantan Selatan memiliki proporsi sektor Perkebunan dan Pertambangan yang besar bagi total PDRB wilayahnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak penurunan harga komoditas sektor Perkebunan dan kenaikan harga komoditas sektor Pertambangan di luar wilayah Tabalong terhadap variabel-variabel makro dan output sektoral. Dengan menggunakan Model Keseimbangan Umum yang berbasiskan data Tabel Input Output Kabupaten Tabalong tahun 2016, diperoleh beberapa temuan. Pertama, dampak penurunan harga komoditas sektor Perkebunan disertai kenaikan harga komoditas sektor Pertambangan secara umum masih mampu meningkatkan perekonomian Kabupaten Tabalong. Kedua, dampak dari shock pada sektor Pertambangan lebih dominan dibandingkan shock pada sektor Perkebunan. Keberagaman dampak shock terhadap sektor-sektor di Kabupaten Tabalong hendaknya ditindaklanjuti dengan melakukan identifikasi sektor unggulan dan potensial dalam rangka perencanaan dan pengambilan kebijakan supaya perekonomian bisa terus tumbuh walaupun diterpa guncangan yang tidak terduga.
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